This is a national moment when we need a Winston Churchill to lead us in the fight with the coronavirus. Instead, President Trump reassures us that “it’s going away” — his words as he spoke in Arizona at a packed megachurch where few people wore masks. Instead of Churchill, we have a leader who tries to deceive us, not the enemy, and then helps that enemy infiltrate our homes and churches. As this map by my graphics colleague Nathaniel Lash suggests, some 27 states are reporting increasing numbers of cases, while just 10 and Washington D.C. are reporting falling numbers (the rest are holding steady). Arizona has the highest number of new cases per day per million population, and Texas, California, Arizona and several other states have reported record numbers of cases in the last few days. That’s my column today. Brace yourself. The Economic Disaster Ahead Whenever I talk to epidemiologists, I’m struck by the gulf between public opinion and expert opinion. Most people and the financial markets seem to think that we’re going through a tough period but that it will be over soon. Epidemiologists on the other hand, think that for at least the next year we’ll be fighting the virus, losing friends and family, and suffering from a depressed economy. Likewise, the I.M.F. says it expects the global economy to shrink 4.9 percent this year and to recover more slowly than many expect. And remember that disasters sometimes feed on each other. The economic crises could increase the risk of upheaval in Saudi Arabia or Iran that would interrupt oil supplies, or could increase the chance of Chinese adventurism in the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait. In other words, I fear that this will be a longer and more painful road than many expect. The Times is providing free access to much of our coronavirus coverage; this newsletter, as well as our Coronavirus Briefing newsletter, are free. Please consider supporting our journalism with a subscription. Black Lives Matter Donations In my last newsletter, I noted that readers had contributed more than $5.8 million to my Covid-19 initiative — huge thanks! — and some readers then asked me for suggestions for groups to donate to support Black Lives Matter and racial equity. So here are four organizations that I admire for their work in this space:
All great organizations that I commend to you. And remember as well that you can continue to donate to the Covid-19 initiative at www.KristofC19impactinitiative.org. But Philanthropy Isn’t Enough I’m proud of how much my readers donated to the Covid-19 effort, and the above organizations do wonderful work that deserves support. But inequity is too great to be solved by generous people writing checks. We would never think of building an interstate highway system with volunteers and donations, and when one in six children in the United States doesn’t graduate from high school, that requires more than charity. We also need structural change. For example, we don’t have universal pre-K as our peer countries do, and our K-12 education system is structured to give a third-rate education to low-income kids of color and a first-rate education to rich white kids. Or think about our foster-care system: Only half of kids growing up in foster care graduate from high school, and fewer than 3 percent graduate from a four-year college. It’s a broken system that spits out inequity. Sahel Countries Teetering One of the parts of the world I worry about most is the Sahel belt of West Africa, including countries like Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. They are profoundly unstable, and some could collapse into failed states. My colleague Ruth Maclean has an excellent account from Burkina Faso of death squads there. Companies Acting Hypocritically Corporations always talk a good game about their commitment to equality, but they usually squander their enormous potential to do the right thing. Vice reports that companies issue blacklists of terms that they do not want in articles that they advertise against, and these terms include “Black Lives Matter,” “George Floyd,” “protest,” “interracial,” “refugee,” “transgender,” “gay,” and in one case, simply “black people.” The upshot, Vice reports, is that articles about the George Floyd protests were monetized at a rate 57 percent below that of other news content. Big companies might as well call for news organizations not to cover these important issues. Best Audiobooks Apple has listed its “best audiobooks of the year so far,” and we’re thrilled that our new book “Tightrope” is on the list. Thanks to Jennifer Garner for reading the audiobook so well! And thanks to all for spreading the word about “Tightrope.” The Coronavirus Out of Control And here’s my column about Covid-19 slipping out of control in the United States. Houston could be the next New York City, and so could Phoenix. Most of the South and West is problematic. We should be very worried about the trajectory. Please read. You can connect with me on Facebook or Instagram. If you have friends who might enjoy this newsletter, please forward this email or tell them they can sign up here. If you’re looking for more, check out our recent book here. Feedback and suggestions welcome at kristof-newsletter@nytimes.com.
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